The Ledger
Refuse to select, and the species corrodes
The Ledger is a public book of published rates. Seven sections: solvents in military water, United States cancer deaths and new cases, autism identification from 2000 to 2022, the arithmetic of extending that line, adult outcomes, life expectancy since the 1500s, and screening with the birth counts that followed.
Each entry is a year, what was counted, the figure, and the source. The title is the claim. The books are the record.
- 1.70
- Parkinson’s, Lejeune vs Pendleton, odds ratio
- 1 in 31
- Autism identified, ADDM, age 8, 2022
- −35%
- US cancer deaths, age-adjusted, 1991–2024
01
Solvents
1953–1985
Camp Lejeune drinking water, Hadnot Point, TCE maximum
ATSDR. 280× the 5 µg/L maximum contaminant level.
1,400 µg/L
1975–1985
Camp Lejeune drinking water, monthly median TCE
Goldman et al., JAMA Neurology, 2023. Above 70× the 5 µg/L limit.
366 µg/L
1975–1985
Camp Lejeune vs Camp Pendleton, Parkinson’s disease
Goldman et al., 2023. 279 cases vs 151. 95% CI 1.39–2.07. n = 172,128 and 168,361.
OR 1.70
1975–1985
Marines and Navy, Lejeune vs Pendleton, myelodysplastic and myeloproliferative syndromes
Bove et al., Environmental Health Perspectives, 2024. 95% CI 1.07–2.62.
aHR 1.68
1975–1985
Marines and Navy, acute myeloid leukemia
Bove et al., 2024. 95% CI 1.03–1.85.
aHR 1.38
1975–1985
Marines and Navy, esophagus
Bove et al., 2024. 95% CI 1.03–1.56.
aHR 1.27
1975–1985
Marines and Navy, all myeloid cancers
Bove et al., 2024. 95% CI 1.03–1.49.
aHR 1.24
1975–1985
Marines and Navy, thyroid
Bove et al., 2024. 95% CI 1.03–1.45.
aHR 1.22
1972–1985
Civilian workers, squamous-cell lung
Bove et al., 2024. 95% CI 1.10–2.41.
aHR 1.63
1972–1985
Civilian workers, ductal breast
Bove et al., 2024. 95% CI 1.02–1.71.
aHR 1.32
2022
Camp Lejeune Justice Act, federal claims window opened
Public Law. Conditions recognized by the Department of Justice have included kidney cancer, liver cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemias, bladder cancer, multiple myeloma, Parkinson’s disease, kidney disease, and systemic sclerosis.
2022
Record
Military installations with documented TCE
EWG review of federal records, 2025.
1,400+
Record
Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia, TCE in a groundwater monitoring well
EWG, 2025, from Defense Department samples. About 240,000× the 5 ppb tap-water limit.
1,200,000 ppb
Record
Military sites with known or suspected PFAS discharge
EWG compilation of Defense Department data. Foam used from the 1960s.
700+
Literature
PFOA and PFOS, reported associations
Also thyroid disease, immune effects, and cholesterol. IARC classifications: TCE, benzene, and vinyl chloride, carcinogenic to humans. PCE, probable or likely.
Kidney, testicular
02
Cancer, United States
1950
United States, all sites, age-adjusted death rate
SEER historical tables, per 100,000. Rounded.
195
1991
United States, all sites, age-adjusted death rate, peak
SEER. Per 100,000.
215
1991–2024
United States, age-adjusted cancer death rate
AACR Cancer Progress Report, 2026. About 5 million deaths averted against the 1991 rate.
−35%
2019–2023
United States, all sites, age-adjusted death rate
SEER, per 100,000.
145.4
2018–2022
United States, all sites, age-adjusted incidence
SEER, per 100,000.
445.8
1975–2019
United States, age-adjusted incidence, registry era
SEER anchors, per 100,000. Rounded.
400–490
Report
Share of US cases attributed to tobacco, weight, alcohol, infection, ultraviolet light
AACR Cancer Progress Report, 2026. Attribution estimate.
~40%
Report
Breast and colorectal cancers in inherited high-penetrance syndromes
Published estimates for those two sites.
5–10%
03
Autism identification
1526
Autism rate
The category does not exist in that century.
No record
2000
ADDM, age 8, combined sites
CDC. 1 in 150.
6.7 / 1,000
2022
ADDM, age 8, 16 sites
CDC. 1 in 31. 4.8× the 2000 figure.
32.2 / 1,000
2022
ADDM, California site, age 8
CDC. 1 in 19. Get SET Early screening; state regional centers.
53 / 1,000
2022
ADDM, California site, age 4
Shaw et al., MMWR, 2025.
60.6 / 1,000
2022
ADDM, Laredo, Texas, age 8
CDC. 1 in 103. Same protocol year.
9.7 / 1,000
2022
ADDM, boys vs girls, age 8
CDC.
>3×
2022
ADDM, IQ ≤70 among children with a documented score
CDC / Shaw et al., MMWR, 2025.
~40%
2022
ADDM, IQ >85 among children with a documented score
HHS release of the 2022 survey. IQ ≤85 is the complement.
36.1%
Studies
Twin-study heritability
Published range.
60–90%
2024
Prenatal valproate, autism, maternal-epilepsy cohort
Adjusted. Topiramate and lamotrigine were not elevated after the same adjustment.
aHR 2.67
Reviews
Prenatal air-pollution meta-analyses
Often not statistically significant.
OR ~1.1
Reviews
Other reported associations
Older parental age. Birth complications with hypoxia.
Listed
04
Projection
Endpoints 6.7 per 1,000 (2000) and 32.2 per 1,000 (2022). ADDM, age 8.
2038
Year at 100 per 1,000
2051
Year at 250 per 1,000
1 in 7
2042 · 134.2 per 1,000
1 in 2
2062 · 559.1 per 1,000
2061
Year at 500 per 1,000
2071
Year at 1,000 per 1,000
05
Outcomes
2021
Adult outcome studies, good
Mason et al. 18 studies, 1,199 people. 95% CI 10.9–30.1.
20.0%
2021
Adult outcome studies, fair
Mason et al. 95% CI 17.5–36.2.
26.6%
2021
Adult outcome studies, poor
Mason et al. 95% CI 38.1–60.5. Lower adult IQ predicted poor outcome.
49.3%
Pooled
Mortality, autism cohorts vs comparison groups
Higher again with intellectual disability. Reported causes include seizures, accidents, and suicide.
~2×
06
Life expectancy at birth
1550
Europe, life expectancy at birth
Reconstruction. Years.
~35
1850
Europe, life expectancy at birth
Reconstruction. Years.
~40
1900
United States, life expectancy at birth
Years.
~47
1950
United States, life expectancy at birth
Years.
~68
2019
United States, life expectancy at birth
Years.
~79
2022
United States, life expectancy at birth
Years. Pandemic drop.
~77
1800
World, life expectancy at birth
Years.
~30
2019
World, life expectancy at birth
Years.
~73
07
Screening
Before 1971
Tay-Sachs, affected Jewish infants, US and Canada
Before community carrier testing.
50–60 / year
After 1971
Tay-Sachs, Jewish births, after voluntary carrier screening
Reported incidence. Births fell to a handful per year.
>90% fewer
2011–2015
Europe, Down syndrome live births
de Graaf et al.
8,031 / year
2011–2015
Europe, Down syndrome live births expected with no selective termination
de Graaf et al. Reduction 54%. Malta ~0%. Spain ~83%.
17,331 / year
2011–2015
United States, estimated reduction in Down syndrome live births
de Graaf et al. Expected births rose with maternal age.
~37%
1927
United States, Buck v. Bell
Compulsory sterilization. State programs also operated in other countries, including racial-hygiene law in Nazi Germany.
Upheld